A huge percentage of the gamblers you talk to will swear by beginner’s luck. Their first time at the tables, they’ll have gone on dominating runs and wake up with $100k stashed in the fridge.
Beginner’s luck looks real because the only people who stick around in the gambling game are the ones who had a lucky first experience. The folks who get beat up (or just break even) the first time they play tend to walk away.
We get the same thing in startups. Most of the long-term players were [at least somewhat] successful their first time around. The others–the ones who were totally squashed–fade out of the community and return to other pursuits.
There’s a huge amount of skill, insight & execution demonstrated by these wins. But just like in the casino, you can have the requisite skill and still get blindsided by a bad run.
The tough part is when you then look around and everyone else seems to have done pretty well on their first one. But it’s not because everyone succeeded. It’s because the failures quietly disappear.
There’s a survivor bias going on. You need to accept that things are not as they seem, find a way to stop the comparisons, and get to work on the next one.
 For example, Norm MacDonald.
Stop looking for cofounders and help them find you instead Next Post:
3 months of runway